Republicans Link Immigration Crackdown to Reducing Housing Costs in 2024 Campaign

In the lead-up to the 2024 election, Republicans are testing a new argument that ties together three major campaign issues: immigration, inflation, and housing costs. This emerging case posits that a Donald Trump-led crackdown on immigration could alleviate high prices, particularly in the housing market.

The GOP platform, unveiled ahead of next week's convention in Milwaukee, argues that the next president should seal the southern border and deport millions of undocumented immigrants. This, they claim, would address the rising costs of housing, education, and healthcare for American families. This stance, however, is met with skepticism from many economists and Democrats, who argue that such measures could actually exacerbate inflation.

The GOP platform, unveiled ahead of next week's convention in Milwaukee, argues that the next president should seal the southern border and deport millions of undocumented immigrants. This, they claim, would address the rising costs of housing, education, and healthcare for American families. This stance, however, is met with skepticism from many economists and Democrats, who argue that such measures could actually exacerbate inflation.

EJ Antoni of the conservative Heritage Foundation supports the GOP's case, suggesting a 2-to-1 ratio where a 5% increase in population leads to a 10% rise in rents. He pointed to communities along the southern border and major cities as examples of areas most impacted by new migrant influxes.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, in a Senate hearing, expressed doubts about the long-term impact of immigration on inflation. Powell noted that while immigration might have short-term benefits by loosening the labor market, it could have regional effects, increasing housing costs in some areas. This perspective was challenged by Sen. J.D. Vance, a leading contender for Trump's vice-presidential pick, who argued that lower wages due to immigration are not beneficial for Americans.

The GOP's argument draws some inspiration from the UK, where Bank of England's chief economist Huw Pill attributed rising housing costs to significant increases in immigration. U.S. studies, like one from the Partnership for a New American Economy, found that immigration can raise home values due to overall economic activity.

The GOP's platform, part of a broader effort to appeal to voters and business leaders, also includes more voter-friendly stances on social issues and a softer approach on trade and tariffs compared to Trump's campaign trail rhetoric. The platform avoids the more extreme proposals, such as a 60% tariff on Chinese goods, instead supporting baseline tariffs on foreign-made goods.

As Republicans prepare for their convention, they aim to sharpen their focus on immigration and inflation, anticipating that these issues will resonate with voters increasingly concerned about the cost of living.