Kamala Harris Surges Ahead in Latest Polls, Shaking Up the 2024 U.S. Presidential Race

In a dramatic shift, Vice President Kamala Harris is leading former President Donald Trump by 45% to 41% in a new Reuters/Ipsos poll, reflecting a surge of enthusiasm among voters ahead of the November 5 election. The four-point advantage represents a significant increase from a mere one-point lead in a late July poll by the same organization. The poll, conducted over eight days ending Wednesday, shows Harris gaining ground particularly among women and Hispanic voters.

Harris now enjoys a 13-point lead over Trump among both women and Hispanic voters, with 49% to Trump's 36%. This is an improvement over July’s numbers, which saw her ahead by 9 points among women and 6 points among Hispanics. Trump, however, still holds sway among white voters and men, though his lead among voters without a college degree has narrowed from 14 points in July to 7 points in the latest poll.

These findings come amid a tumultuous summer in the U.S. presidential race, particularly after President Joe Biden, 81, ended his re-election campaign on July 21 following a disastrous debate performance that led to calls from within his own party for him to step aside. Since Biden's exit, Harris has managed to consolidate support and make significant gains against Trump in both national and state-level polls.

While national polls like those from Reuters/Ipsos provide a snapshot of voter sentiment, the winner of the U.S. presidential race is ultimately determined by the Electoral College, making battleground states crucial. In the seven states where the 2020 election results were the closest—Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, North Carolina, Michigan, and Nevada—Trump currently leads Harris by a slim margin of 45% to 43%, according to the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll.

However, a separate Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll released on the same day suggests that Harris is either leading or tied with Trump in each of these critical states. The poll shows her with a 2-point lead among registered voters across these seven states and a 1-point lead among likely voters, which falls within the poll's 1-point margin of error, making it a statistical tie.

Further boosting her candidacy, Harris has managed to flip the race in her favor among several key demographics. According to a USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll, Harris now leads Trump 48% to 43%, an eight-point turnaround from late June when Trump led President Biden by nearly four points. Harris's newfound strength is most apparent among Hispanic and Black voters, as well as younger voters—a coalition traditionally critical for Democratic success. Notably, among voters with annual incomes below $20,000, Harris has turned a three-point deficit against Trump in June into a 23-point lead in August.

In another development, a Fox News poll shows Harris with narrow leads in three out of four key Sun Belt states: Arizona (48% to 47%), Georgia (48% to 46%), and Nevada (48% to 46%). In North Carolina, a state Trump narrowly won in 2020, he holds a slim one-point advantage at 48% to Harris's 47%. This marks a substantial improvement for the Democratic ticket, given that Biden trailed Trump by six points in Georgia and by five points in both Nevada and Arizona as recently as June.

The latest numbers have triggered a sharp response from the Trump campaign, which dismissed the polls as "atrocious" and accused Fox News of releasing skewed data. The campaign maintains that Trump’s support is stronger now than at this point in the 2020 election cycle, which he eventually lost to Biden.

Despite these gains, the race remains highly competitive in other crucial swing states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, where polls show the candidates in a neck-and-neck battle. As the election approaches, both campaigns will likely intensify their efforts to sway undecided voters and secure pivotal victories in these states.

The coming months promise to be critical as Harris aims to maintain and expand her lead, while Trump seeks to regain lost ground and capitalize on his strongholds. With the stakes higher than ever, every percentage point will count in what is shaping up to be another fiercely contested U.S. presidential election.