Sudan’s War Intensifies: Army Launches Major Offensive in Khartoum

Sudan’s capital erupted in violence on Thursday as the army launched a significant military offensive against the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF). This marks the largest operation by the army in months, aimed at regaining control of Khartoum, which has been largely held by the RSF since the outbreak of civil war in April 2023.

The conflict, which began as a power struggle between General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, head of the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), and Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, leader of the RSF, has plunged Sudan into a humanitarian disaster of unprecedented scale. Over 10 million people have been displaced, and entire swathes of the country have become battlefields. The violence in Khartoum follows months of tense stalemate, with the RSF controlling much of the capital, while the army maintained dominance in other key regions, including Omdurman.

Historical Roots of Conflict: A Battle Born of Fragile Governance

Sudan’s civil war is not merely a recent outbreak of violence but is deeply rooted in the country’s fragile political history. Since gaining independence from joint British-Egyptian rule in 1956, Sudan has endured a tumultuous political landscape defined by military coups, secessionist movements, and internal strife.

The RSF itself emerged from the infamous Janjaweed militias, responsible for mass atrocities in Darfur during the early 2000s, and was later formalized as a paramilitary force by the government. Initially, the RSF operated as a proxy force under the regime of former President Omar al-Bashir to suppress insurgencies and control dissent. However, as al-Bashir was ousted in 2019 amidst mass protests, the country’s transition to civilian rule faltered, setting the stage for Burhan and Hemedti’s rivalry. Their power struggle reflects deeper structural issues, such as the lack of strong civilian governance and the over-reliance on military elites in political decision-making.

Khartoum: The Epicenter of a Civil War

Thursday’s fighting is part of a broader offensive that seeks to weaken the RSF's entrenched positions in the capital, which has been one of the hardest-hit regions since the start of the war. Early reports indicate that army forces launched aerial bombardments and artillery strikes at dawn, targeting RSF bases across Khartoum and in Bahri to the north.

Military sources confirmed that government forces crossed several strategic bridges over the Nile River, a critical maneuver in the ongoing battle for control of the capital. The offensive came just hours before al-Burhan’s scheduled address to the United Nations General Assembly in New York, signaling a potential shift in the army’s strategy to regain lost ground.

The significance of this latest offensive cannot be understated. For months, the SAF relied heavily on airstrikes and long-range artillery to slow RSF advances without making substantial territorial gains. This shift toward a more aggressive ground campaign may indicate that the army is seeking to capitalize on the RSF’s simultaneous engagements in other parts of the country, such as Darfur and southern Sudan.

A Nation Caught Between Two Armies: The Humanitarian Toll

The fighting in Sudan is not just a battle for political power; it is a catastrophe for the country’s 48 million inhabitants. The United Nations has labeled the situation in Sudan one of the worst humanitarian crises in modern history. An estimated 150,000 people have been killed since April 2023, though the true number of casualties remains unknown due to limited access to many conflict zones. Millions more face acute hunger, as widespread displacement has disrupted food production and vital supply chains.

The conflict has also drawn attention to the fragility of Sudan's governance structures and the role of militarized politics in its development. Many analysts argue that the war is a direct consequence of Sudan’s failure to build robust civilian institutions in the aftermath of al-Bashir's ousting. The vacuum of power allowed competing military factions to dominate the political landscape, with disastrous results.

International organizations, including the United Nations and the African Union, have repeatedly called for a ceasefire and negotiations to end the violence. However, diplomatic efforts have faltered, with both sides refusing to yield. The SAF recently pulled out of peace talks in Switzerland, signaling that the conflict is far from resolution. Meanwhile, regional players like Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates have watched cautiously, fearing that Sudan’s instability could spill across its borders and destabilize neighboring countries.

A War of Attrition: What’s Next for Sudan?

The future of Sudan hangs in the balance as both the SAF and RSF appear unwilling to negotiate, prioritizing military victories over diplomatic solutions. The latest offensive by the army, though significant, is unlikely to be a turning point. The RSF, though weakened in certain areas, remains entrenched in Khartoum and enjoys significant support from external actors who benefit from the prolonged conflict.

Many fear that Sudan could face the same fate as other war-torn nations in the region, such as Syria or Yemen, where protracted conflicts have decimated civilian life and left the state unable to function. The international community’s failure to broker peace only adds to this concern.

Adding another layer to this crisis is the looming risk of famine. A UN-backed report has warned that Sudan could face one of the worst famines in modern times, with millions of people at risk of starvation if the fighting continues to disrupt agricultural production and food distribution. Cholera outbreaks are already rampant, further complicating humanitarian efforts.

In a chilling parallel, some observers have drawn comparisons between the current conflict and the Sudanese civil wars of the 20th century, which led to mass displacement, widespread famine, and the eventual secession of South Sudan in 2011. With no end in sight, the country risks becoming another fractured state in a region already rife with instability.