Federal Reserve Makes First Interest Rate Cut Since 2020, Signals More Reductions Ahead
Fed officials forecasted two additional rate cuts this year, followed by four more in 2025, with the possibility of two more in 2026
The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a half percentage point on Wednesday, marking its first monetary policy easing since 2020 and signaling further cuts ahead. The central bank lowered its benchmark rate to a range of 4.75% to 5.0%, ending its most aggressive inflation-fighting campaign since the 1980s.
The decision was reached after a split vote at the conclusion of the Fed's two-day policy meeting, with Fed governor Michelle Bowman dissenting, advocating for a smaller 25-basis-point cut instead of the 50-point reduction. This dissent broke a two-year streak of unanimous votes on policy decisions, highlighting divisions within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).
Future Cuts Expected
Fed officials forecasted two additional rate cuts this year, followed by four more in 2025, with the possibility of two more in 2026. The move reflects growing concerns about the slowing labor market, which saw weaker-than-expected job growth over the summer. Employment numbers fell short of expectations, with job creation in June, July, and August lagging behind the average monthly gain of the past year.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the central bank's focus on stabilizing the labor market, saying, "The Fed will do everything we can to support a strong labor market as we make further progress toward price stability." Powell also noted that the Fed does not "welcome further cooling in labor market conditions" and that the current policy rate provides flexibility for future adjustments.
Inflation Outlook
Another key factor in the Fed’s decision was increasing confidence that inflation is heading back toward its 2% target. Recent Consumer Price Index reports have shown significant progress, bolstering Fed officials' belief that inflation is under control. Despite inflation "remaining somewhat elevated," the Fed cited this progress in its decision to cut rates.
The Fed's revised economic projections see inflation dropping to 2.3% by the end of 2024 and to 2.1% by the end of 2025. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is expected to rise slightly to 4.4% by year-end, holding steady through 2025.
Impact on Markets and Global Economy
The rate cut is expected to have a substantial impact on financial markets, especially on the value of the U.S. dollar, stock markets, and commodities like gold. The Fed’s decision could also influence the monetary policies of central banks around the world, particularly those aiming to maintain competitive exchange rates or stimulate their economies.
With interest rates still higher than pre-pandemic levels, the Fed remains cautious but prepared to adjust its policies as necessary. Powell's comments, as well as the Fed's future decisions, will continue to shape market sentiment as investors and businesses adapt to the evolving economic landscape.
