Behind Closed Doors: The Strategic Stakes of Jake Sullivan’s Meeting with China’s Military Leader

In a strategic move to ease escalating tensions, U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan met with General Zhang Youxia, a top Chinese military official, in Beijing on Thursday. This rare encounter marks the first high-level military meeting between the U.S. and China since 2016, underscoring the urgency to address contentious issues like Taiwan and the South China Sea, and prevent them from spiraling into a broader conflict.

Strategic Timing and Broader Implications

The timing of Sullivan's visit is significant, coming just as the White House announced plans for a phone call between U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping in the coming weeks. This sequence of events suggests a concerted effort by both nations to stabilize relations, manage competition responsibly, and avoid any miscalculations that could lead to conflict, especially with the backdrop of upcoming U.S. elections and shifting global alliances.

Sullivan's discussions with General Zhang were part of a broader three-day diplomatic effort that also included meetings with China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi and other key officials. While the conversations covered a range of topics, Taiwan and the South China Sea remained at the forefront, with Sullivan emphasizing the importance of freedom of navigation and stability in these contested areas.

Taiwan: The "Red Line" That Cannot Be Crossed

The meeting with General Zhang was particularly notable for the direct exchange on Taiwan, which Beijing views as a non-negotiable issue. Zhang reiterated China's stance that Taiwan's status is the "first red line that cannot be crossed" in U.S.-China relations, warning against what he termed "military collusion" between the U.S. and Taiwan. He urged Washington to cease its arms sales to the self-ruled island, which Beijing sees as a direct challenge to its sovereignty.

Sullivan, on the other hand, stressed the U.S. commitment to maintaining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait, while navigating a delicate balance between supporting Taiwan's self-defense capabilities and avoiding actions that could be perceived as endorsing its independence—a move that China has repeatedly warned against.

South China Sea and Broader Security Concerns

Beyond Taiwan, the South China Sea remains a flashpoint for U.S.-China tensions, particularly as China continues to assert its claims over disputed waters, clashing with U.S. allies like Japan and the Philippines. Sullivan raised concerns about China's increasing assertiveness in these maritime regions, emphasizing the need for freedom of navigation—a core principle of U.S. foreign policy.

The dialogue between Sullivan and Zhang also touched on other global security issues, including the ongoing conflict in Gaza and cyber security threats, areas where the U.S. has expressed concerns about potential Chinese involvement or influence. Sullivan highlighted the need for both countries to avoid miscalculations in cyberspace, a domain that has seen rising tensions and mutual suspicions of state-sponsored cyber operations.

A Tentative Path Forward

The meeting between Sullivan and Zhang culminated in an agreement to hold a call between the two sides' theatre commanders, a step seen as critical for preventing crises and managing unexpected military encounters. This planned communication between U.S. Indo-Pacific Command's Admiral Samuel Paparo and his Chinese counterpart could help build a framework for de-escalating tensions in real-time, a necessity given the frequent encounters between U.S. and Chinese forces in the region.

The broader implications of Sullivan's visit and the upcoming Biden-Xi call will be closely watched, particularly as both nations navigate their domestic political landscapes. For the U.S., managing its relationship with China remains a delicate balance of competition and cooperation, a theme likely to dominate the discourse in the lead-up to the presidential election. For China, engaging with the U.S. on these issues reflects a recognition of the complex inter-dependencies between the two powers and the need to manage differences without veering into conflict.

As the two nations inch closer to a potential leadership call, the Sullivan-Zhang meeting serves as a reminder of the high stakes involved and the critical need for open lines of communication to navigate the complexities of U.S.-China relations in an increasingly multipolar world.